There is a lot of money to be obtained this week on DraftKings including a top prize of $30k in the primary tournament. I will be going heavier than normal this week following the big GPP prizes, and I will play less money games than usual. This is the first time we have observed a $30k top prize, therefore I think it is worth chasing if you have the bankroll for it.
We did lose the co-main event with Max Holloway pulling out of the fight against Brian Ortega, thus we are now down to 11 fights and we should see a great deal of ties with this card with all the popular lineups. If you are pursuing that $30K then you will want to try and be a bit different with your lineup so that you can distinguish yourself from the remainder of the field. With that said, let’s get to a few plays I like in addition to my fade of this week.
Money Game play of this week — Paul Felder ($7,400)
The DK pricing on this fight is way off from the gambling line. On DK, Felder is 1,400 less than his opponent, Mike Perry. On the betting line, Felder is your -150 favorite. That’s just too much line value to pass in cash games and that makes Felder the”free square” this week. Even if he loses this fight, he must be highly owned that it will not even damage your lineup in money games. In GPP’s, Felder will be among the greatest owned fighters on the card and if he loses there then it may kill your lineup, so perhaps think about avoiding the chalk there if you can. However, with that crazy line value we’re getting here, Paul Felder is the easy pick for the cash game play of the week.
GPP play of this week — Mike Perry ($8,800)
Ok, I know this seems a little weird because I just picked Paul Felder because my money play of this week, but hear me out. In cash games, we don’t care about possession. If Felder is 90% owned in cash games, then it doesn’t damage your lineup because only 10% of lineups did not possess him and you merely need to be top ~50% of the field to cash in money games. In GPPs, I’m imagining Felder will probably be over 50% possessed. When he loses, that’s half of the area that is dead without a chance at winning 1st location.
Mike Perry on the other hand will be less than 20% owned, and maybe closer to 10% just due to this mispriced line. If Felder kills and loses off 50% of lineups, then you get a win with the low owned man to put you in a much better place of a Royal 1st place win and maybe hitting $30k. Perry has the capability to KO anyone and Paul Felder is taking this fight on short notice in a weight class above his division. Can it truly shock you that much if Perry could KO him? In GPPs, we are interested in finding that boom or bust play and that’s Mike Perry this week making him my GPP drama of this week.
Underdog drama of the week — Anthony Pettis ($7,600)
Anthony Pettis could have been a -500 favorite over Michael Chiesa if this struggle happened 5 decades before, but now we get a fading Pettis as a underdog and $1,000 less costly than Chiesa on DraftKings. I believe Pettis can keep this fight standing for many the fight and that will give him a huge edge. He’s also dangerous on the floor himself and if he’s taken I think he will have the ability to get back up if he isn’t able to get a submission of his very own. If Pettis can win a decision then I think he will pay his off DK cost and is going to be a good underdog to utilize so it is possible to save salary in your lineups. I may even find this battle ending early from Pettis falling Chiesa using a human body kick and if that happens he will probably be on the winning lineup if he could make it happen in around 1.
Fade of the week — Rafael Assuncao ($9,100)
At $9.1k, I have zero interest in Assuncao this weekend. I really do think he wins the fight, but I don’t see him paying that high price . He does not fight at a heavy pace and he has not gotten a takedown in his past 4 wins and the floor is where he will have his biggest edge in this matchup. In those previous 4 wins, Assuncao hasn’t scored over 78 DK points and in his salary this week I want at least 91 points out of him to cover that much. I would rather pay up for the men higher priced compared to Assuncao, or even go down to Vannata or Miocic. I’ll have 20 lineups this weekend and Assuncao will probably be in 0 of these, which makes him my fade of the week.
Thank you for reading this and good luck this weekend! If You’d like my own full-card breakdown at which I breakdown every struggle about the card and provide my full DraftKings analysis, in Addition to all of my pick predictions, you can find that for just $7.99 at this link below:
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