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BIG MARLEY’S UFC 231 DRAFT KINGS FANTASY BREAKDOWN

posted: October 4, 2019 at 12:00 am

category:Community Bulletin

This weekend, we have a 12-fight card with two name struggles in Toronto, Canada. We are back to using PPV sized competitions on DraftKings this week and there are a few solid GPPs to chase this week. The main GPP is a $10 entrance with $25,000 to 1st place. These are always my favourite contests to pursue so I’ll be shooting some shots in that. Aside from that, I’ll stick to my 3-entry maximum & single entry GPPs. I’ll also be picking up H2Hs throughout the week and I will find a good quantity of play in cash games. With that said, here are a Couple of plays I like this week as well as my fade of the week:
Money Game play of this week — Joanna Jedrzejczyk ($6,800)
JJ might be the simplest money game punt of all time in $6.8k. The line for Fight Goes To Decision is currently -195 and if we’re getting 5-rounds out of JJ using all the striking volume she puts out then we have a solid floor there and it doesn’t matter whether she wins or loses. At the price tag she lets you pay up for a few heavy favorites and if we can get 4 other spots to win with a ~40-point loss from JJ in our lineup then we will be sitting very pretty in our money games this weekend.
GPP play of the week — Thiago Santos ($8,800)
Fight Does Not Go To Conclusion is presently lined at -495 for this fight. The most likely outcome is that someone in this struggle gets knocked out in 15-minutes. With that knockout likely comes in one 10-point knock down. If this may be from the 1st round, then you are currently at 100-points even if it’s merely the 1st punch/kick of the night. At $8.8k that’s more than sufficient to offer you a chance at 1st place at a GPP. Thiago is your favorite in this fight and Manuwa is 38-years old now, so that he can not have much time in the game left. I think we function together with the favored here and throw him into our GPP lineups and then wait for the fireworks.
Underdog drama of the week — Matthew Lopez ($7,300)
Matthew Lopez is my underdog of this week because of his wrestling/grappling possible. In addition, I believe he is a underdog here. Lopez lost his last 2 fights by knockout, so that is what I would be worried about most with him Brad Katona is most likely the better striker of both but he has never knocked out anybody, so I think we have a good floor here at $7.3k even if this struggle does stay standing because I do not watch Katona knocking Lopez out. I think Lopez is probably the better wrestler of both though and I believe he lands several takedowns in this fight and may win a choice using a wrestling-heavy game plan. Lopez lands 3.13 takedowns per 15-minutes at a 57 percent accuracy, and when he’s getting pieced up on the toes I am certain that he is going to be going for much greater than this. At $7.3k I believe Lopez makes for a solid play in all formats and that I think he gets a split decision win here since the street underdog.
Fade of the week — Katlyn Chookagian ($8,700)
I’m fading a couple of fighters this week personally, but the person I never even considered using was Katlyn Chookagian. It’s not that I do not believe she could win, since she for certain could, and I think she does. However, I do not see her paying off an $8.7k DK salary with a triumph. I believe we’d need a finish from her in this struggle to get 10x that salary and I believe that is very unlikely to take place. Or, she’ll want FightMetric to rely all her screams as important strikes. The maximum Chookagian has scored in a UFC fight so far in her career is 83 DK points which was contrary to Irene Aldana who sets a much higher rate than Jessica Eye does. Even though she could get 83-points here afterward that still would not be enough here to put her in the winning lineup in her 8.7k price tag. I think if you are earning 20 or less lineups this Saturday you can safely fade Chookagian and when she’s a win it should not hurt much.
Thank you for reading this and good luck this weekend! If you would like my full-card breakdown where I breakdown every fight on the card and give my entire DraftKings evaluation, as well as all my select predictions, you’ll find that for only $7.99 at this link below: