This weekend, we have a 12-fight card with 2 name fights in Toronto, Canada. We’re back to using PPV sized contests on DraftKings this week and there are a few solid GPPs to chase this week. The most important GPP is a $10 entry with $25,000 to 1st place. Those are always my favourite contests to pursue so I will be taking some shots in that. Other than that, I’ll stick to my 3-entry maximum & single entry GPPs. I will also be picking up H2Hs throughout the week and I will find a fantastic quantity of play in cash games. With that said, here are a Couple of plays I enjoy this week as well as my fade of the week:
Cash Game play of this week — Joanna Jedrzejczyk ($6,800)
JJ may be the easiest money game punt of all time in $6.8k. The lineup for Fight Goes To Conclusion is currently -195 and when we are getting 5-rounds out of JJ with the striking volume she puts out then we have a good flooring there also and it doesn’t matter if she loses or wins. At that cost she lets you cover up for a few heavy favorites and if we could get 4 additional spots to win with a ~40-point reduction from JJ within our lineup then we will be sitting quite pretty in our cash games this weekend.
GPP play of the week — Thiago Santos ($8,800)
Fight Does Not Go To Decision is currently lined at -495 for this fight. The most likely outcome is that somebody in this struggle gets knocked out within 15-minutes. With that knock-out probably comes in one 10-point dip down. If that can be in the 1st round, then you are currently at 100-points even if it is merely the 1st punch/kick of the evening. At $8.8k that is more than enough to give you a chance at 1st place in a GPP. Thiago is the favorite in this fight and Manuwa is 38-years old now, so that he can not have a lot of time at the match left. I believe we function together with the favored here and throw into our GPP lineups and then wait for the fireworks.
Underdog drama of the week — Matthew Lopez ($7,300)
Matthew Lopez is my underdog of this week due to his wrestling/grappling possible. In addition, I think he is a live underdog here. Lopez lost his last 2 fights by knockout, so that’s what I would worry about most with him Brad Katona is probably the better striker of both but he has never knocked anybody out, so I believe we have a good flooring here at $7.3k even though this struggle does remain standing because I don’t watch Katona knocking Lopez out. I think Lopez is probably the better wrestler of both though and I believe he lands multiple takedowns in this fight and may win a choice with a wrestling-heavy game program. Lopez lands 3.13 takedowns per 15-minutes in a 57 percent precision, and when he’s getting pieced up on the toes I am certain that he will be going for much more than that here. At $7.3k I think Lopez makes for a good play in most formats and I think he has a split decision win here since the road underdog.
Fade of the week — Katlyn Chookagian ($8,700)
I am fading a few fighters this week personally, but the individual I never considered using was Katlyn Chookagian. It’s not that I do not think she can win, since she for certain can, and I think she does. But I don’t see her paying off an $8.7k DK salary with a win. I believe we’d require a complete from her in this struggle to receive 10x that salary and I think that is very unlikely to take place. Or, she will want FightMetric to rely all her screams as important strikes. The most Chookagian has ever scored in a UFC fight so far in her career is 83 DK points which was contrary to Irene Aldana who sets a much higher pace than Jessica Eye does. Even though she could get 83-points here then that still would not be enough here to place her in the winning lineup at her $8.7k price tag. I think if you’re making 20 or less lineups that Saturday you may safely fade Chookagian and if she gets a win it shouldn’t hurt much.
Thank you for reading this and good luck this weekend! If You’d like my full-card breakdown where I breakdown each fight on the card and give my entire DraftKings analysis, in Addition to all of my select forecasts, you can find that for only $7.99 on this link below:
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