This weekend, we have a 13-fight PPV card in Phoenix, Arizona. This is the first ever UFC on large ESPN card and DK has some decent competitions for us for this Sunday card. The most important GPP is a $10 buy and $20k belongs to 1st place, also there’ll be $100k in total prizes. They also have a brand new Qualifier for $175,000. There will be 100 qualifiers for that last contest and they will compete for a $50k first place cost and $175k will probably be distributed between all 100 entries that match. Those Qualifier only competitions can be real bankroll suckers therefore be careful chasing those too hard. I will probably stick to the very best GPP this week and then throw 50 or so entries at the $20k prize. I will also be posting H2Hs as well as picking up H2Hs throughout the week to get a good quantity of play into cash games. With that said, let’s get into some plays I enjoy too as my fade of this week:
Money Game play of the week — Vicente Luque ($9,400)
Vicente Luque is the safest play on the background, in my opinion. I think he’ll be the fighter anywhere this fight goes, and he should predominate. I like locking that win in my money match and I think he has a good shot at getting 10x his $9.4additional salary. I really do expect him to be hot in tournaments so in the event that you want to fade the ownership there and try to become more contrarian, I would definitely need some Luque investment in money games. Barberena is demanding so that he could continue all 3 rounds and if he does then Luque could score from the 80s which won’t win any GPPs. But, we can work with an ~80-point triumph in money games because we just need to beat half the area unlike the tournaments.
GPP drama of this week — Cain Velasquez ($9,000)
Cain Velasquez is my GPP play of the week due to the chances. A bit over a week ago he was a -255 favored and that’s what led to his high $95 price tag. Now he’s just -155 and all the worth is on Ngannou at his 7.2k price tag. I expect Ngannou to be the highest owned fighter on the card and when Cain wins then he will kill off close to half the area. Also, if Cain wins he is likely scoring over 100-points. I expect his ownership to really go down the more his gambling line decreases and that is what makes him a fantastic GPP play. He’s a 0-point flooring, therefore that I do not care for him in money game, however for GPPs we need boom or bust to attempt and get to that 1st place prize.
Underdog play of this week — Andre Fili ($7,400)
Andre Fili is my favorite dog of this week. He is $1,400 cheaper than Myles Jury on DraftKings, however he is only a +125 underdog. I believe he has a fantastic chance of winning this battle and I am choosing him to receive his hands raised. I expect this to be a very close battle, but I think Fili will probably be the fighter striking in the higher rate and that is what I believe gets it done for him to the judges’ scorecards. I don’t see Fili with 100+ stage upside down but we don’t really need that at his $7.4k price tag. I believe he’s a good shot at getting at least 10x, so he’s playable in most formats for me.
Fade of the week — Andrea Lee ($8,900)
Andrea Lee is my fade of this week. Not because I think she will lose, but I think have a hard time seeing her on the 20k lineup in her wages. I enjoy the $9k range a great deal more than her and they all have higher ceilings with their grappling-based game programs. Andrea Lee scored well within her UFC debut, but this is because she didn’t utilize grappling there. I don’t see her doing this in this game because I presume Evans-Smith gets the edge on the floor and she should be the one looking for takedowns. If Lee will win this battle, then she is going to have to do it on the feet and I really don’t see her having a high ceiling without a finish. The sole reason to utilize her is because she is going to be super low owned, and it will make your lineup , but I wouldn’t advise it.
Thank you for reading this and good luck this weekend! If You’d like my full-card breakdown where I breakdown every struggle on the card and give my full DraftKings evaluation, in Addition to all of my pick predictions, you can find that for only $7.99 at this link below:
(Premium stakes are offered at that link as well. I’m 57-34 for +188.13un (+$18,813) because May 19th on Premium Plays)
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